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68 pages 2 hours read

Tim Marshall

Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Explain Everything About the World

Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 2015

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Chapter 8-ConclusionChapter Summaries & Analyses

Chapter 8 Summary: “Korea and Japan”

North Korea is a small country caught between China, to the north, and South Korea. Run as “a dynasty shared by one family and one party” (210), North Korea is a Communist dictatorship that rules over an impoverished nation of about 25 million with “arbitrary arrest, torture, show trials, internment camps, censorship, rule of fear, corruption, and a litany of horrors” (210). Isolated, playing regional powers against one another, and acting “the crazed, powerful weakling to good effect” (210), North Korea constitutes an ongoing, dangerous problem that no one has been able to solve.

Divided from China by the Yalu River, the Korean peninsula has often fallen victim to outside forces, including Mongol, Chinese, and Japanese empires. At the end of World War II, Korea was freed from Japanese control but divided along the 38th parallel between a Communist north, guarded by Russian troops, and a pro-American south. In 1950, after the US and Russia removed their forces, North Korea invaded South Korea, and, moving across the western coastal plain, “raced down the country almost to the tip of the southern coast” (213). Although the US didn’t need South Korea strategically, it also didn’t want its Asian allies to lose faith and “hedge their bets or go over to the Communist side” (214). America sent troops to Korea, where they quickly pushed the North Korean military back to the Chinese frontier. Communist China, in turn, did not want the US military at its border: “thirty-six months of fierce fighting ensued with massive casualties on all sides before they ground to a halt along the current border” (214), roughly on the original 38th parallel demarcation line, “and stuck they remain” (214) in an uneasy truce.

The Korean Peninsula, with mountains on the east and plains on the west, divides more easily that way than north and south. Thus, the major populations centers lie in the west and face off across the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). Half of South Korea’s 50 million people live in or near their capital, “the megacity of Seoul” (215), a mere 35 miles south of the border, while 10,000 North Korean artillery pieces aim down at them from the hills just north of the border.

Thus, according to Marshall, “a major conflict is never more than a few artillery rounds away” (215). Within the first hour of a war, the North might lob 100,000 to 500,000 explosive shells at the south’s major urban area. The North Korean army, one of the world’s largest, could quickly invade the southern lowlands. Eventually the South, aided by the US, would likely prevail, but China might once again intervene.

Were the two Koreas somehow to unify, Japan—despite its fears of a powerful Korean peninsula—might support it as a move against China. Most of the costs would be borne by the industrial South, since the North is much less developed, but the North’s rich natural resources, including coal, zinc, copper, and iron (218), would help. A renewal of war between the two, however, “could wreck the economies of the region.” South Korea, with few natural resources but a massive industrial base and seas on three sides, has built a proper navy to help it deal with any future conflicts, including against Japan, a traditional enemy.

“The Japanese are an island race” (220) with 127 million people spread across four large islands and thousands of smaller ones. Its distance from the Asian landmass “is among the reasons why it has never been successfully invaded” (220). Japan is mountainous, so the people crowd together mainly along the narrow coasts, especially in Tokyo, “the biggest megacity in the world” with nearly 40 million people. Poor in mineral resources, Japan “remains the world’s largest importer of natural gas, and the third-largest importer of oil” (222).

During the early twentieth century, in a militant search for resources, Japan overtook Korea and northern China, “conducted a full-scale invasion of China in 1937” (222), and invaded northern Indochina. In response, the US embargoed Japan’s oil. Japan retaliated by attacking the US at Pearl Harbor, and “then swept on across Southeast Asia, taking Burma, Singapore, and the Philippines, among other territory” (223). The US needed rubber and other resources from that region, so it entered World War II by launching total war against Japan.

Geography helped determine the outcome. US forces, liberating Southeast Asia island by island, finally reached Okinawa on the outskirts of Japan. Foreseeing massive troop losses in an invasion of Japan’s mountainous terrain, the US instead dropped nuclear weapons on two of the nearest cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Japanese surrendered.

America “helped them rebuild, partially as a hedge against Communist China,” and Japan “became a global economic powerhouse” (223), its limited Self-Defense Forces watched over by 30,000 US troops. With the growing threat posed by China, the US has relaxed its grip, “prepared to accept a remilitarized Japan” (223).

Despite their differences, South Korea and Japan need each other, along with help from outside, to make cautious the Chinese behemoth. The US military presence in both countries, then, is likely to remain for years to come.

Chapter 9 Summary: “Latin America”

Latin America’s geography—from Mexico to the southern tip of South America—limits the region’s economic success. Latin America’s “total population [...] is 600 million people, yet their combined GDP is equivalent to that of France and the UK, which together comprise 120 million people” (232).

Wealthy European colonists established cities near the coast, with roads inland to collect resources, but because the interior of the region, especially the disease-infested jungles, is of little interest to the Europeans, they did not invest in building roads that cross from coast to coast.

Mexico is limited by harsh northern deserts, dense southern jungles, and mountains in between; its coasts on the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico have few deep harbors. Brazil’s “internal regions will remain isolated from one another” (231). Argentina and Chile, “despite their wealth of natural resources, will still be farther away from New York and Washington than are Paris and London” (231). Moreover, South America’s Andes mountain range runs 4,500 miles, cutting off western coastal areas from the rest of the continent. East of the Andes, in the temperate southern region, the land is fairly flat and good for agriculture and construction, but the northern areas are dominated by mountains and jungles.

One overall advantage is that nearly all Latin American countries speak Spanish or Portuguese. A drawback is that the borders between countries descend from arbitrary decisions made centuries ago in Europe. Add the mix of African and European immigrants living among native peoples, and a culture clash results. On top of that, “a fluctuating set of anticolonialist/pro-socialist ideas that often stray into nationalism” (234) generates instability.

Bolivia in 1879 lost a war with Chile and gave up its Pacific coastline, making it landlocked: “This in turn has exacerbated the severe divide between the mostly European lowlands population and the mostly indigenous peoples of the highlands” (234). Several countries lay claim to portions of their neighbors, and wars have erupted over these disputes, the latest in 1995 between Ecuador and Peru.

The land that makes up California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas belonged to Mexico until 1848, when the US took over the land in the Spanish-American War. Mexico’s modern-day northern border lies on difficult desert terrain; this helps prevent massive migration to America, but the border is “porous—a problem with which successive US administrations will have to deal” (236). By 2050, the largest ethnic group in America’s southern border states will be Hispanic.

Internally, “the rugged terrain still prevents Mexico from developing as it would like” (237). To the south lie Belize and Guatemala, but their terrain also is difficult and unprofitable, and Mexico is too busy trying to develop its industry and oil reserves, while quelling various internal conflicts, to embark on military adventures.

One of Mexico’s biggest problems began elsewhere, in Colombia, where, in the 1990s, the US launched a campaign against drug cartels, “closing down many of the air and sea drug routes” (238). The cartels responded by moving contraband north through Central America and Mexico and smuggling it across the US border. Drug-gang turf wars sprung up, “with the winners using their new power and money to infiltrate and corrupt the Mexican police and military and get inside the political and business elites” (238). According to Marshall, “Mexico is now in the grip of what is almost a civil war” (239).

Panama, in Central America, is so thin that a canal is built across it in 1914 to connect Atlantic and Pacific trade, shaving 8,000 miles off the sea journey. China wants Venezuelan oil, but Venezuela and the US are at loggerheads, and Venezuela has cut ties with Panama, an American ally. China therefore has partnered with Nicaragua to build a canal across that nation, hoping this will ensure access to South American resources.

Elsewhere, “China is lending huge sums of money to Latin American governments” (243), hoping they’ll support China at the UN and elsewhere. China also offers them an alternative to America as a trading partner. The US has “used force in Latin America almost fifty times between 1890 and the end of the Cold War” (244). This rankles the locals, who welcome the Chinese opportunity.

Brazil, the largest country by far in South America, with “an area bigger than the twenty-eight EU countries combined” (245), also struggles to prosper because of its geography. One-third of its area is Amazon rainforest, with soils that support jungle but little else; to the south lie the Brazilian Shield highlands, which contain productive agricultural land but poor interconnections. The coastal cities are walled off by mountains. Moreover, “Brazil’s seven largest ports combined can handle fewer goods per year than the single American port of New Orleans” (247). A quarter of Brazil’s population lives in poverty-stricken slums.

According to Marshall, “Brazil is working on its transport infrastructure, and the newly discovered offshore gas reserves” (247), but this will take time. The country wants to establish an EU-like common market with its neighbors, but, again, the difficult South American terrain stymies interconnection. Brazil’s foreign policy is nonconfrontational, so there are few border disputes.

Argentina has some of the best geography in Latin America for development, with large agricultural plains and rivers that flow toward the main port of Buenos Aires. Though economic and political instability have stifled Argentina’s growth, shale oil and gas could provide it with energy “for the next 150 years with excess to export” (250).

Chapter 10 Summary: “The Arctic”

At the top of the world, the Arctic ice cap is melting, probably due to human-caused global warming. This has opened the Arctic Ocean to exploitation of its resources. Russia is well ahead in the race for Arctic riches.

Explorers long dreamed of finding a short route from the Atlantic through the Arctic to the Pacific; many died trying until “the great Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen charted his way across” (258) the fabled Northwest Passage above Canada and Alaska in 1905. Today, as the ice recedes, ships during summer ply that route or a northeastern lane off the Russian coast.

Experts believe that “vast quantities of undiscovered natural gas and oil reserves may be in the Arctic region,” along with “extra reserves of the gold, zinc, nickel, and iron already found in part of the Arctic” (262). Several countries border the Arctic—Russia, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Greenland, and the US in Alaska, all of whom make up the Arctic Council—but many of their claims to the region are disputed by other Council members. More distant countries argue that the region is part of the international commons and open to all.

Most Arctic Council nations have beefed up their armed forces in the area. Russia engages in massive arctic war games, and it possesses the world’s largest icebreaker fleet, with 32 ships. The US, on the other hand, has only one icebreaker, and it no longer maintains a military presence on Iceland, the first line of defense should Russia send its arctic fleet south into the Atlantic during a crisis.

The US also has not ratified the UNCLOS treaty, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, “effectively ceding two hundred thousand square miles of undersea territory in the Arctic” (268) that it otherwise could claim as an Economic Exclusion Zone (EEZ).

The greatest threats, however, come from the Arctic itself: “dark, dangerous, and deadly” (270). International law and dispute resolution are well settled, and the “Arctic Council is composed of mature countries” (269). It may be better to reach reasonable agreements quickly on the territorial issues, so all can work together, protecting each other in the harsh polar environment.

Conclusion Summary

Overcoming the limitations of geography is an age-old dream, but many challenges remain. Russia still fears invasion across its plains. India and China, separated by the Himalayas, may take to the seas to fight. Flooding from global warming, along with desertification elsewhere, will likely increase, causing wars and mass migrations, while battles may break out over scarce fresh-water resources.

A new frontier, space, presents its own physical challenges: “in space, too, we will plant our flags, ‘conquer’ territory, claim ground, and overcome the barriers the universe puts in our way” (276). We can work together beyond the Earth, but according to Marshall, “we are still imprisoned in our own minds, confined by our suspicion of the ‘other’ […] There is a long way to go” (277).

Chapter 8-Conclusion Analysis

The devastation left by two world wars provided the great powers with a sharp reminder: Direct conflict can devastate not just armies, but entire nations. The proxy war in North Korea and the careful dancing by major powers around the resources of South America and the Arctic feature prominently in the final three chapters of the book.

A proxy war is a battle fought between two powers in a place geographically distant from both. This land must be important enough to fight over but far enough away so that the skirmish doesn’t flare up into a much larger contest. Proxy wars are especially important in the nuclear age, when any set-to can escalate into total annihilation.

Notable proxy wars have taken place in recent decades. In Korea in the early 1950s, Communist China supported the North Korean army against South Korean troops backed by US forces trying to quell Communist expansion. In Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s, the US similarly battled Marxists in a small tropical country far from the real enemy, Soviet Russia, which supported Communist North Vietnam. In Afghanistan in the 1980s, the tables were turned as Soviet colonial forces fought local rebels who were provisioned and trained by the US.

Proxy battles of one type or another have also been waged, off and on, between US interests in Latin America and those of other countries. In 1962, America and Soviet Russia nearly approach nuclear war over Russian missiles found in Cuba, off the Florida coast. The Soviets agreed to remove the missiles if the US pulled its own nuclear-tipped weapons from Turkey, which borders Soviet territory.

A more subtle conflict involves US, Russian, and Chinese economic interests in Latin America. Both Russia and China are courting the socialist Venezuelan government, while the US campaigns against the government with words, diplomatic pressure, and supplies to the rebels. Elsewhere, America profits from economic development contracts with several Latin American nations, but China lately has made counter-offers, increasing competition.

The Monroe Doctrine of 1823 stipulates that European powers must no longer try to colonize Latin America. Trade, on the other hand, is permitted. This gives China a fairly free hand in offering development projects to the region. Apart from backroom arm-twisting and the occasional black-ops assassination, the most America can do is improve its offers to the countries involved.

In the far north, the US lacks a significant icebreaking fleet, which would appear to be a disadvantage in the push for polar resources. If the Arctic is melting, however, countries may not need as many such vessels. On the other hand, Russia’s icebreakers help ensure that its Arctic naval bases can remain open for longer periods each year.

The Russians, notes Marshall, “are even considering building a floating nuclear power plant capable of withstanding the crushing weight of ten feet of ice” (269). These power plants would be towed to cities of up to 200,000, where they can provide power, heat, or desalinated sea water. In August 2019, the Russians launched the first such power plant.

Also in 2019, US President Trump floated the idea of America buying Greenland from Denmark. The notion was ridiculed—sovereignty shouldn’t be for sale, argue the naysayers, and if Greenland is valuable enough to attract American interest, it’s probably too important to sell—but it points up the importance of Arctic access. The US in particular, though it already claims a part of the Arctic in Alaska, is somewhat late to the polar power game and needs to improve its hand.

Even if the US were merely to station a larger military mission in Greenland, both it and Denmark would stand to gain, especially in any shoving match that might erupt with Russia. Greenland is part of the GIUK Gap (Greenland, Iceland, United Kingdom), a narrow region of the North Atlantic through which Russia would likely try to deploy its arctic navy during wartime. Moreover, the US oil industry is well equipped to assist Denmark in developing its oil reserves off the northern Greenland coast. The idea for America to buy Greenland is thus merely the first signal that the island will soon become a major piece in the polar game.

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