The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny

Awakening refers to the second turning of a saeculum. It is a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime (124). The awakening of the current saeculum was the Consciousness Revolution, lasting from 1964 to 1984.

Crisis refers to the fourth turning of a saeculum. It is a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one (124). Strauss and Howe predicted that the crisis era of the current saeculum would begin in the middle of the 2000s and end roughly 20 years later.

Culture Wars is the name that Strauss and Howe give to the latest unraveling era, which began in 1984 and was predicted to last until midway through the 2000s. More broadly, culture war, as defined by writer Irving Kristol, refers to the profound division over what kind of country we are, what kind of people we are, and what we mean by “The American Way of Life.”

The ancient Greeks of the Hellenistic Period believed that their Great Year cycle ended only with the discontinuity produced by the ekpyrosis, the moment when fire destroys all things—even human souls. Following the ekpyrosis, another Great Year cycle begins anew. Strauss and Howe compare this ancient myth to their theory concerning fourth turnings, noting that a new saeculum can only begin following the discontinuity of a fourth turning crisis era.

A generation consists of all the people born around the same time. Although the length of time varies, it generally includes all people born over a period of 20 to 30 years. According to Strauss and Howe, three attributes must be present to determine a generation: a common location in history, common beliefs and behavior, and a perceived membership in the generation. Because of these attributes, a generation develops a collective persona, or archetype. 

A sociological term, generation gap refers to the stark differences of opinion regarding politics, social issues, and/or values between one generation and another. Strauss and Howe apply the term directly to the difference of opinions that arose between the Boomer Generation and their GI Generation parents during the Consciousness Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s.

Generational archetype refers to the collective persona that a generation develops due to its shared location in history, the nurture it received, and the challenges that it faced coming of age. The four generational archetypes are hero, artist, prophet, and nomad. These archetypes recur in the same order during each saeculum.

In Chapter 5, the authors introduce the term gray champion with an anecdote concerning a solitary elderly man who stopped British troops marching through the streets of Boston a century before the American Revolution. According to Strauss and Howe, this elderly man, like many others throughout American history, was an elder expression of the prophet archetype. The prophet archetype always enters the life phase of elderhood in the tumultuous crisis era of the fourth turning. 

In their prediction of things to come during the upcoming fourth turning, Strauss and Howe forecast that a great devaluation will occur. The authors define this as a severe drop in the market price of most financial and real assets (274-75). 

High refers to the first turning of a saeculum. It is an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order implants and the old values regime decays (124). The high of the current saeculum was the period following World War II, lasting from 1946 to 1964. 

Hero refers to one of the four generational archetypes. The hero archetype is born in an unraveling, enters young adulthood in a crisis, enters midlife in a high, and enters elderhood in an awakening (125). According to Strauss and Howe’s generational theory, the GI Generation (1901-1924) and the Millennial Generation belong to the hero archetype. 

Nomad is one of the four generational archetypes. The nomad archetype is born in an awakening, enters young adulthood in an unraveling, enters midlife in a crisis, and enters elderhood in a high (125). According to Strauss and Howe’s generational theory, the 13th Generation (1961-1981) and the Lost Generation (1883-1900) belong to the nomad archetype.

Prophet is one of the four generational archetypes. The prophet archetype is born in a high, enters young adulthood in an awakening, enters midlife in an unraveling, and enters elderhood in a crisis (125). According to Strauss and Howe’s generational theory, the Boom Generation (1943-1960) belongs to the prophet archetype (137).

Saeculum refers to the ancient belief in a seasonal cycle of history lasting roughly the length of a long human life, or 80 to 100 years. The seasonality of the saeculum explains the recurrence of the four turnings throughout modernity. 

According to Strauss and Howe, a turning is a social mood that changes each time the generational archetypes enter a new constellation. Each turning is roughly the length of one phase of life and each saeculum consists of four turnings: a high, an awakening, an unraveling, and a crisis.